Mental Models in Naturalistic Decision Making

Introduction
performing research
on decision making at
MITRE Corporation

Information
start with the poems
or download the papers or
 contact the people

Interaction
you can play card games
or volunteer to take our
web experiments

The Project Thesis
 mental models are
the mechanisms by which
minds make sense of things

The Basic Theory
rationality
is the rule but bounded by
what seems good enough

Laboratory Tool
 TRACS is a card game
chances and choices deal with
double-sided cards

Computer Model
fuzzy linear
algorithm simulates
confidence judgments   

Methods and Uses
a matrix displays
cognitive engineering
opportunities

A Measured Result
in Bayesian inference
people are conservative
and often confused

Time is Critical
computer systems
paint pictures for war fighters
who what when where why

Warfare is Poker
on baize battlefields
hand to hand combat is won
by Bayes bargaining